Moscow Extends Grain Initiative
Bulk carriers are docked at a grain terminal in the port of Odesa, Ukraine, on April 10.Bo Amstrup/Ritzau Scanpix/AFP via Getty Images
The world narrowly avoided a grain supply chain catastrophe on Wednesday, when Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he would extend the Black Sea Grain Initiative another two months—just one day before the agreement was set to expire. The deal allows Ukraine to export commercial food and fertilizer to the rest of the world by establishing a safe transportation corridor from the Ukrainian ports of Chornomorsk, Odesa, and Pivdennyi.
Had Putin not extended the initiative, Russia could have returned to conducting a full-scale maritime blockade of Ukrainian grain. Ukraine supplies more than 13.5 million metric tons of wheat, making it the fifth-largest wheat exporter in the world. This means any hurdles to accessing Ukrainian grain exports could worsen global food insecurity, as seen in the early days of Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Under the initiative, more than 30.3 million metric tons of grain and other foodstuffs have successfully reached other countries. Developing nations have specifically benefited, with nearly 57 percent of grain exports reaching countries such as Ethiopia, Yemen, Djibouti, Somalia, and Afghanistan.
Putin initially hoped the Black Sea Grain Initiative’s extension deadline could be an effective bargaining chip to curtail Western sanctions on Russian grain and fertilizer exports. This strategy worked with some success during the last round of extension negotiations in March, FP’s Christina Lu and Robbie Gramer explained at the time. “While Western sanctions exclude Russian agricultural products, Moscow says the sanctions have hampered those exports by targeting Russian insurers and payment companies”—a complaint Putin reiterated in this round’s negotiations.
However, according to Sergiy Kyslytsya, Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Nations, Russia profits from the deal far more than it’s hurt by it, with grain exports doubling under the initiative’s protections. And with Ukraine suggesting other alternatives if the Black Sea Grain Initiative failed, Russia faced political pressure to acquiesce.
“Russia wants to have its cake and eat it, too,” said Caitlin Welsh, the director of the Global Food Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It wants to be able to invade a major agricultural producer, cause disruption in global agricultural markets, and also not experience any disruptions itself.”
Established in July 2022, the Black Sea Grain Initiative has been extended twice since its creation: once in November 2022 and then again in March. When the DSM Capella, carrying 30,000 metric tons of corn en route to Turkey, left the Ukrainian port of Chornomorsk on Wednesday, U.N. officials feared it would be the last authorized ship to leave Ukraine. But now, a renewed Black Sea Grain Initiative soothes food supply chain worries for at least another 60 days.